Monkey-brained Musings
Sunday, February 27, 2005
Gratuitous Oscar Post
Here we are the Academy Awards again, and I am racing right up to the wire with my thoughts and prognostications. It should be an interesting evening as many of the categories are too close to call.
Best Picture
Likely Winner: Aviator
Should Win: Million Dollar Baby or Ray
With the caveat that I haven’t seen Finding Neverland (took a pass this afternoon because the weather is just so gorgeous), this is a very competitive category, with no clear favorite, and where any of the films could rightly win. Now that I’ve gotten the conventional wisdom out of the way, I give the nod to the Aviator mostly because it is the sort of historical spectacle from a noted director that the Academy likes to reward. It also may win as votes get split amongst the other pictures. I was more certain that Aviator would win before I saw Million Dollar Baby. Baby is a superbly made and emotionally riveting movie, with only the former true of Aviator
Actor in a Leading Role
Likely Winner: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Paul Giamatta
Even though Paul Giamatta got dissed, Foxx turned in an amazing performance and rightly deserves the statue.
Actress in a Leading Role
Likely Winner: Annette Bening
Should Win: Perhaps one of the actresses who’s performance I haven’t seen.
Bening gets the nod both for experience and for playing a theatrical role.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Likely Winner: Morgan Freeman
Should Win: Morgan Freeman
Freeman turned in a very strong performance, and this is his fourth nomination. Alda also did well in his role as a U.S. Senator, but he is doing a far better job portraying a senator on the West Wing, and he deserves another Emmy for that work. Owen is the wild card here since I haven’t seen Closer.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Likely Winner: Virginia Madsen
Should Win: Sharron Warren
This is another extremely competitive category. I’m giving Madsen the nod both for the strength of her performance and the weaknesses of the others. Blanchett did a great job, but for some viewers, her braying laugh was like nails on a chalkboard. Linney did a fine job, but if she wins it will be as much for her work last year in Mystic River. Warren turned in an outstanding performance as Ray Charles’ mother and deserved a nomination.
Directing
Likely Winner: Martin Scorsese
Should Win: Michel Gondry
Another very competitive category. Scorsese gets the nod for career achievement, edging out Eastwood who won as director of Unforgiven. Payne has already produced a strong filmography and will likely be back here again. Gondry deserved a nomination if not an award for the outstanding control he displayed in presenting the time and perspective shifting in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Animated Feature Film
Likely Winner: The Incredibles
Should Win: The Incredibles
There is no contest here. I cannot even believe that Shrek 2 and the execrable Shark Tale even received nominations. Was Tokyo Godfathers truly a 2003 release? Can’t we make an exception? We can console ourselves that Howl’s Moving Castle will be here next year.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Likely Winner: Charlie Kaufmann
Should Win: Kaufmann
Kaufmann has already built an impressive body of work, and now is the time for him to get the recognition. A win by John Logan could signal a trend in favor of The Aviator.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay
Likely Winner: Alexander Payne
Should Win: Alexander Payne
This will be Payne’s consolation prize because he and Sideways are unfortunately not likely to receive many other awards. A win here by Paul Haggis could signal a trend in favor of Million Dollar Baby. I still have no clue how Linklater is even eligible with Before Sunset.
That’s enough for now. I’m going to get this posted before I get accused of anything that might resemble live-blogging.
Update: 5 out of 9 on my predictions. It was good to see Million Dollar Baby win for Best Picture, but I still think that Scorsese deserved the award for Best Director.
Here we are the Academy Awards again, and I am racing right up to the wire with my thoughts and prognostications. It should be an interesting evening as many of the categories are too close to call.
Best Picture
Likely Winner: Aviator
Should Win: Million Dollar Baby or Ray
With the caveat that I haven’t seen Finding Neverland (took a pass this afternoon because the weather is just so gorgeous), this is a very competitive category, with no clear favorite, and where any of the films could rightly win. Now that I’ve gotten the conventional wisdom out of the way, I give the nod to the Aviator mostly because it is the sort of historical spectacle from a noted director that the Academy likes to reward. It also may win as votes get split amongst the other pictures. I was more certain that Aviator would win before I saw Million Dollar Baby. Baby is a superbly made and emotionally riveting movie, with only the former true of Aviator
Actor in a Leading Role
Likely Winner: Jamie Foxx
Should Win: Paul Giamatta
Even though Paul Giamatta got dissed, Foxx turned in an amazing performance and rightly deserves the statue.
Actress in a Leading Role
Likely Winner: Annette Bening
Should Win: Perhaps one of the actresses who’s performance I haven’t seen.
Bening gets the nod both for experience and for playing a theatrical role.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Likely Winner: Morgan Freeman
Should Win: Morgan Freeman
Freeman turned in a very strong performance, and this is his fourth nomination. Alda also did well in his role as a U.S. Senator, but he is doing a far better job portraying a senator on the West Wing, and he deserves another Emmy for that work. Owen is the wild card here since I haven’t seen Closer.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Likely Winner: Virginia Madsen
Should Win: Sharron Warren
This is another extremely competitive category. I’m giving Madsen the nod both for the strength of her performance and the weaknesses of the others. Blanchett did a great job, but for some viewers, her braying laugh was like nails on a chalkboard. Linney did a fine job, but if she wins it will be as much for her work last year in Mystic River. Warren turned in an outstanding performance as Ray Charles’ mother and deserved a nomination.
Directing
Likely Winner: Martin Scorsese
Should Win: Michel Gondry
Another very competitive category. Scorsese gets the nod for career achievement, edging out Eastwood who won as director of Unforgiven. Payne has already produced a strong filmography and will likely be back here again. Gondry deserved a nomination if not an award for the outstanding control he displayed in presenting the time and perspective shifting in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Animated Feature Film
Likely Winner: The Incredibles
Should Win: The Incredibles
There is no contest here. I cannot even believe that Shrek 2 and the execrable Shark Tale even received nominations. Was Tokyo Godfathers truly a 2003 release? Can’t we make an exception? We can console ourselves that Howl’s Moving Castle will be here next year.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Likely Winner: Charlie Kaufmann
Should Win: Kaufmann
Kaufmann has already built an impressive body of work, and now is the time for him to get the recognition. A win by John Logan could signal a trend in favor of The Aviator.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay
Likely Winner: Alexander Payne
Should Win: Alexander Payne
This will be Payne’s consolation prize because he and Sideways are unfortunately not likely to receive many other awards. A win here by Paul Haggis could signal a trend in favor of Million Dollar Baby. I still have no clue how Linklater is even eligible with Before Sunset.
That’s enough for now. I’m going to get this posted before I get accused of anything that might resemble live-blogging.
Update: 5 out of 9 on my predictions. It was good to see Million Dollar Baby win for Best Picture, but I still think that Scorsese deserved the award for Best Director.
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